Putin calling

Our beloved president would have us believe that he always has his finger on the pulse; that the world is just waiting for him to make that call, but we’re not so sure…

Relations between Russia and the West are more strained than they have ever been. After the conflict in Ukraine and the introduction of reciprocal sanctions, Moscow embarked on the Syrian operation, which, a year later, has brought international cooperation in the Middle East to a stalemate.

The current tension is also unique in that, for all John Kerry’s jetting about the globe meeting Sergei Lavrov in hotel suite after hotel suite, Washington and Moscow have now all but refused to discuss any further steps that might be taken together in Syria. This can be seen not only from their official statements, but also from the graphs showing the telephone calls between the heads of state, which are regularly logged by the Kremlin.  If we summarise these data, it is clear that Moscow finds it much more interesting to discuss the situation in Syria with Turkey and Israel.

Russian president and participants in Syrian conflict: number of telephone calls
Light blue: USA, France and Great Britain
Red: Turkey
Dark blue: Israel
July-September 2015; October-December 2015; January-March 2016; April-June 2016; July-October 2016
Source: Kremlin press service

You might think that this is how Vladimir Putin always deals with international situations – keeping people dangling. But this behaviour is not typical, not if we compare the situations now in Syria and before that, in Ukraine. Then, at the very height of the conflict, as we see below, the Kremlin was in touch with Paris, Berlin, Washington and London practically every day.

Russian president’s telephone calls: number of calls
Light blue: The West (NATO countries excluding Turkey)
Red: The East (Turkey, Middle Eastern countries, India and China)
Dark Blue: CIS
Source: Kremlin press service

Since then, the Kremlin has clearly shifted the accent of its international policy eastwards – towards its partners in the BRICS and Middle East. Moreover, Turkey, which until recently was regarded as Russia’s chief enemy on the international stage, has now become her chief dialogue partner.

Who is the Kremlin mainly talking to? Proportion of overall number of calls
Pink: Turkey
Green: Normandy contact group [Germany, France, Ukraine]
Beige: Germany
Grey: GB
Light blue: USA
Source: Kremlin press service

In 2012, when Putin was just embarking on his third term, most of the calls he made were to Washington. Now, even Paris and Berlin, his chief partners in dealing with the Ukrainian crisis, have taken a back seat. According to these data, it would seem that Moscow simply does not wish to discuss Syria with anyone, even though it is the most important item on the current international agenda.

But perhaps there’s another way of looking at this – from the other end of the line as it were. We’re wondering if this lack of communication doesn’t mean the West (at last) understands that it is now in a new phase of the ever-changing relationship with our beloved president. Perhaps Obama, Merkel, Hollande et al don’t actually want to talk to him, that it’s seen as a waste of time – a case of don’t call us, we’ll call you.