Regina v. Kremlin

The UK has voted to leave the EU. It is not only the British who have woken up to a new world: the world has woken up to a new world. For some, it is a moment to celebrate, for others a time to resign.

What can one say. There is much to be said, and for certain there is a lot of talk at this moment about what type of future we are all facing. But this is no time for Churchillian rhetoric, not when the level of debate about Brexit has barely risen above pub talk.

As we write, the Financial Times is looking at the financial and economic consequences of Brexit, and has this quotation from a City worker: “Truth is that no one really has a clue what’s going to happen.” True, because at this moment, the only thing that any of us can be certain of is uncertainty.

But if the map of Europe is today looking different, and the redrawing will need two years to negotiate, there are some contours which stand out. For the Russian opposition, what concerns us is the likely change in the relationship between the UK and Russia.

Be in no doubt: the relationship between Britain and Russia will change; the relationship between the West and Russia will change. Looking at it as a member of the Russian opposition, we do not like what we see ahead.

The UK will have new leaders – Boris Johnson, who might well become prime minister; and Nigel Farage, who, as leader of the UK Independence party, although he will have no formal place in government, can no longer be seen as the joker in the pack, but must now be regarded as a man who can claim to represent a sizeable number of the UK population. More so than the hapless Jeremy Corbyn, the nominal head of the Labour party.

Of the many Tories even now politicking for all they are worth, no one can say today with any degree of certainty who will be prime minister, come October. But, no matter who it is, these two men, Johnson and Farage, will be influencing our politics. As a duo, they like to pose as anti-Establishment and anti-Westminster, but they look like insiders to us. Our concern here is the type of relationship between the UK and Russia, which these two men will propose. However they shape the future, neither of them is likely to help the cause of the Russian opposition.

Boris Johnson is a man who has made a career out of winging it, and being somewhat economical with the truth. We have to hope that he is better prepared for running the country than he has shown himself to be to date. His praise of President Putin as a man of “ruthless clarity” barely registered during the recent referendum campaign, but it is a phrase we would do well to remember now. Perhaps Mr Johnson is not a Putin apologist, as some have claimed, but that does not mean he does not admire our adversary. A government led by Mr Johnson, arch-populist that he is, will have much more in common with the Putin regime than the government of the late David Cameron, who has now been consigned to the unkindness of history. Mr Johnson lacks foreign policy experience, and we can only hope that he chooses his advisers with more care than he has chosen his recent political bedfellows – willing to sleep with them but not to actually consummate the marriage.

Mr Farage is more of a known quantity when it comes to his enthusiasm for Vladimir Putin, the world leader he most admires. More than anybody, his anti-immigration rhetoric delivered victory to the Brexit camp. It is not an exaggeration to say that the populist rhetoric, which supported his campaign to take the UK out of the EU, is the same herd instinct that annexed Crimea. Those Russian shouts of “Crimea is ours!” were mirrored in the British shouts of “Take back control.” It is that shared rhetoric – the nasty politics it supports – which worries us most about the consequences of Brexit.

And what of the Kremlin? Is President Putin rubbing his hands with glee at the prospect of a divided Europe? A Europe without the UK, which, as America’s advocate, has to a great extent been driving Europe’s foreign policy, and its relationship with Russia. Is this President Putin’s great opportunity, to further to the utmost his favoured policy of divide and rule? Or is Vladimir Putin aware of something that we think is more likely to happen: that this treacherous and unmapped political landscape is too difficult to navigate with confidence. Putin is a man who likes to be in control; he has made his career out of wrong-footing the West, but Brexit profoundly changes his ability to influence events in Europe. The very instability, which Brexit is likely to cause – economically, politically, in every way imaginable and unimaginable – has to be seen as an opportunity to recalibrate the UK’s relationship with Russia.

Both Mr Johnson and Mr Farage have said that 23rd June should be seen as “Independence Day.” In the matter of Regina v. Kremlin, we hope that the UK’s new leaders, whoever they might be, will show that same independence of spirit.