Excerpts from an interview with Mikhail Khodorkovsky in The New Times

The editors of The New Times held an online discussion between London, Moscow and St Petersburg, with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of OpenRussia, political expert Kyril Rogov and Professor Vladimir Gelman of the European University. They discussed the problems of the irremovability of Vladimir Putin’s government, possible alternatives to the current president, and the risks attaching to his resignation. We give below the most striking statements made by Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Putin as a ‘problem asset’ for the Russian elite

I think that a significant number of people have invested their fate, their income and their lives in Putin. These people are therefore unable to see him as a problem asset because for them he is everything. Kadyrov, Sechin or the Rotenbergs, for example. At this moment a fairly significant part of society is very firmly tied up with Putin. However, if the problems caused by Putin are acknowledged and there are guarantees that there will be no huge additional difficulties, there are also people who will not stick with him.

Western accusations of Putin’s corrupt practices

I think Washington recognises that statements about who they would like to see as head of state and who not, are more likely to ensure the continuation in power of the person they would like to see retire. With the charges they lay at Putin’s door the American government may be sending a signal to their own citizens, but certainly not to ours. Their message is “whatever temporary compromises we agree with Putin, we are nevertheless flagging up that he is not a person with whom we can enter into long-term agreements because we regard him as someone who is unable to negotiate.”

If we were to say “OK, we’re ditching the old world and building a new one from scratch,” then probably 30-50% of the population would be dissatisfied however events were to turn out, including a deterioration in the economy. If we say “there were people who deliberately took steps to move the country in a direction, which suited them alone, but the majority were different – normal,” then relatively few people would go to the barricades for the regime.

The electorate cannot change the regime

The 2018 elections will not be able to usher in a new regime. Only revolution i.e. going outside the framework of existing laws, will be able to effect regime change. To a large extent it depends on us whether it will be a court revolution or on a more massed scale.

The risk of Russia collapsing

For the immediate future (until 2024) Putin’s departure would not put the country at risk of a collapse. To create some kind of realistic separatist movement it is nevertheless essential that the elites should have some concept of a freestanding state unconnected to Moscow. This cannot currently be said to be the case: even the North Caucasus, which in this sense is a separate entity, cannot realistically perceive itself outside Russia.