A new generation of Russian politicians needs Europe’s unified support.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Europe faces important milestones in the next few weeks. Will the European Union continue sanctions against Russia? Will Britain withdraw from the union? Both decisions have the potential to weaken the European project, and could alter, whether directly or indirectly, the Continent’s relations with Russia.

At this crucial juncture, Europe should seek to more deeply understand Russia’s political climate, and look to its untapped potential: a new generation of political leaders that could shift the country’s outlook toward Europe in the years to come.

Unlike Europe, the Kremlin does not work within moral boundaries. It consistently targets Western political and business elites with divide-and-rule tactics both crude and sophisticated. The regime supports, and even finances, fringe political parties. It openly spreads propaganda with the assistance of specially created media outlets. These methods have proved to be effective. And the West is, unfortunately, not immune to them.

Many commentators have described the current tension in EU-Russia relations as a new Cold War. But what distinguishes the current Russian government from the erstwhile Soviet leaders familiar to the West is its rejection of ideological constraints and the complete elimination of institutions.

EU leaders and European public opinion should no longer be deceived into thinking they are dealing with a normal state.

There is not a single issue or position the Kremlin would not abandon for the sake of holding on to power. Nuclear war is a completely unexceptionable argument to the Kremlin today. In his desire to preserve his power — a reflection of his total lack of understanding of what normal government means — President Vladimir Putin rejects even the illusion of institutionalization adopted by Soviet leaders.

None of the structures of the Soviet era exist any more. Instead, a gigantic country with a huge arsenal of weapons is hostage to Putin, a man whose experience of government — as became clear with the leaked Panama Papers — was gleaned from criminal gangsters. Bribery, blackmail, deceit and violence are the vices of any badly run government, but for the Kremlin they are a framework it also energetically exports and promotes abroad.

EU leaders and European public opinion should no longer be deceived into thinking they are dealing with a normal state. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, ahead of his meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg later this month, said: “We must make efforts towards a practical relationship with Russia. It is not sexy, but that must be the case, we can’t go on like this.”

I agree — we cannot forever be waiting for change to come. But the devil you know is not always better than the one you don’t. The Kremlin will do everything in its power to support our dangerous misconceptions. Dangerous because when European politicians meet Putin they are shaking the hand of a criminal.

Putin is loyal and generous to his friends, but has no sense of any responsibility to his electorate or his country. He is proud of his unpredictability. Putin can give no guarantees, because there are no institutions. He is ruled by his whims and the constant fear of losing power.

The only thing that constrains Putin is the fear of an immediate strong-arm response that could destabilize the regime. It was the West’s unexpectedly concerted and tough actions that limited the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine. Europe’s ability to act in concert is now Putin’s chief geopolitical target, because without it Europe is extremely vulnerable, and not just militarily.

Manufactured tension over energy supply, hysteria surrounding the issue of migration, political extremism, blackmail, bribery of political and business elites — these are all part of the Kremlin’s policy toward Europe. And these strategies will become more effective with a disunited Continent. This is precisely why symbols of division, like a British exit from the Union or moves away from a single economic policy, play into the hands of the Kremlin.

Should we fear, as some do, that Russia after Putin will become even more unpredictable? I don’t think so. But better relations will require concerted efforts from both Russia and the West. If Russia is currently functioning in a relatively normal way, this is in spite, not because, of the Kremlin. The absence of political competition and an undiversified economy in Russia, guarantees increasing instability.

Today, despite enormous pressure from the authorities, thousands of activists participate in Russian election campaigns to support the democratic opposition.

The current regime will not last forever. The regime is fairly consistent in its destruction of the fledgling efforts at self-organization and self-government. But the government’s astounding inefficiency limits its effectiveness.

Optimists predict its implosion within a couple of years; my view is that change will take closer to a decade. But how much destruction will Putin and his cronies wreak on the way out? For swift, positive change, we need to support political and civil society leaders with shared European values, political experience, and a commitment to concerted action.

Unless the EU wholeheartedly supports this new generation of Russian politicians and their alternative vision for Russia’s future, it will lose time in creating crucial lines of communication. And this delay will no doubt diminish these reformers’ chances for success.

Today, despite enormous pressure from the authorities, thousands of activists participate in Russian election campaigns to support the democratic opposition. Included are 24 young political leaders supported by Open Russia. This educated, engaged and passionately pro-European generation is already looking ahead to the challenges the country faces post-Putin. Europe must develop a close working relationship with them to ensure it remains relevant to Russia’s future.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky is the founder of the Open Russia movement, which advocates democracy and human rights in Russia, and is the former head of Russian oil company Yukos. He was imprisoned in Russia from 2003-2013 and declared a prisoner of conscience by Amnesty International. Read the original Russian version of his article here.

This article first appeared in Politico.eu