For years now the world has been faced with varying interpretations of Vladimir Putin’s support base.  In the diplomatic aftermath of the annexation of Crimea and as living standards steadily decline, it strikes many as a mystery that the Russian president’s approval rating has remained so consistent.  Open Russia’s Anastasia Olshanskaya cites Levada Centre director Lev Gudkov this week on the real reasons behind Putin’s rating in the run up to the 2018 presidential elections. 

The growth of Putin’s electoral rating is connected with the sense of a lack of an alternative among the pro-Putin electorate, rather than the desire to vote for the current president, Gudkov has stated.

In light of this, Putin’s rating has in fact not risen, but rather remains fixed at the same level it has been for the past two years: “A serious drop in support for Putin’s politics began in 2009 and continued until December 2013.  Dissatisfaction and fatigue grew, but the annexation of Crimea, an unprecedented mobilisation of patriotism and propaganda returned his rating to its 2009 levels, when Russia was at war with Georgia.”

According to Gudkov, “All of Putin’s opponents have either been discredited, or they are seen as simply unrealistic alternatives.”  This is precisely what is behind Putin’s electoral rating.  The sociologist claimed that “if you ask respondents to name the person for whom they are going to vote during the presidential election, then around 54% will name Putin.”

There are few factors which can influence Putin’s rating.  “There are no independent mainstream media outlets, political discussion has disappeared, the impression that all political parties are dependent on the presidential administration is dominating the political sphere.” Said Gudkov.

However, we shouldn’t exclude the possibility that the number of people who are prepared to vote for Putin in 2018 may change.  The participation of Alexey Navalny in the presidential elections may present a challenge to the Kremlin in maintaining the loyalty of the Putin electorate.  Navalny will in any case “add intrigue and unpredictability to the elections, as well as necessitating some kind of other serious competition besides Putin.”

Godkov believes there is another factor that could serve as an external political provocateur:  “The country could find itself facing such a harsh confrontation with the West that people will once again feel themselves on the brink of war.”  This could have a varying effect on society, depending on the context in which it is presented.

On Monday May 29 the Levada Centre reported a historically high approval rating for Vladimir Putin.  According to the results of a survey which asked people who they would vote for if the presidential elections were to take place this coming Sunday;  82% of those who said they would attend the elections would cast their vote for Vladimir Putin.

The Russian presidential elections are due to take place in March 2018.  Opposition politician Alexey Navalny, Yabloko party leader Grigory Yavlinksy and the leader of the Liberal Democrat party Vladimir Zhirinovsky have all expressed their desire to run for the presidency.  Vladimir Putin, however, is yet to announce his own participation.

This article first appeared in Russian at openrussia.org